Separating facts from a guess

A model will write both in the same confident grammar. If you do not mark the guess, the other person will build on it as a fact you asserted.

3 min read

The draft says the contract renews in March, the team is four people, and legal has signed off. One of those you read in a mail. One the model inferred from how you talked. One you hope is true. On the page they are three declarative sentences. The other person will treat all three as things you asserted.

Your assistant has opinions. Grammar does not. Separating facts from guesses is the cheapest honesty in a briefing and the one the draft will not do for you, because the model is rewarded for fluent certainty.

Origin is the tell, not confidence

You can feel sure and still be guessing. The reader cannot use your feeling. They can use a source.

  • Point-at-able. "Priya mailed on the 4th that legal signed." That is a fact about a message.
  • Inferred. "I am treating legal as signed because nobody has raised it in two weeks." That is a guess with a reason.
  • Invented to proceed. "Assume March, otherwise we cannot talk about the vendor." That is a working premise. Write it so they can say no.

If you cannot name which of those a sentence is, it is the third one wearing the first one's clothes.

Unmarked guesses become their facts

They will plan staffing on "the team is four." They will tell their board the contract renews in March. When the truth shows up, the story will be that you said it. You will say the model said it. There will be no label to end the argument.

Provenance on the note tells them who wrote the human sentence. Assumptions need the same kind of mark: not "AI helped," but "this line is a premise." A labelled guess is a question. An unlabelled one is a brick in their plan.

Approval is where you catch the mix

Read the package as if you were going to be quoted. Every date, headcount, and "they already agreed" the rest of the plan depends on either gets a source or gets demoted to an assumption. If the assistant wrote it as a fact, change the line. Confirming an unmarked guess is how you sign it.

Do not ask the model to "add more confidence." Ask it, in the next draft, to list the premises. Then you decide which ones leave the session.

What you owe the other person

They may have no AI. They cannot "check your chat." They have the page. A page that distinguishes what you know from what you are trying out is a page they can answer. A page that does not is a trap that looks like a brief.

If they correct a labelled guess, thank them and move. That is the system working. If they have to unpick a whole plan because a fact was never a fact, you did not save time by leaving the sentence unmarked. You borrowed it from them.

Frequently asked questions

How do I tell a fact from a guess in a draft?
A fact is something you can point at — a sentence someone said, a figure a system reported. A guess is something you are treating as true in order to proceed. If you cannot name the source, it is a guess.
Does RelayLink label assumptions automatically?
It labels what you (or the assistant) mark. An unmarked sentence in the brief reads as an assertion. The work is noticing the guess before you confirm.
What if I am pretty sure?
Pretty sure is still a guess. Certainty is a feeling. Origin is what the reader uses to check the claim.